Serbia
Country profile
The Republic of Serbia is a land-locked country in the SEE region. It is bordered by Hungary on the north; Romania and Bulgaria on the east; Albania and Macedonia on the south; and Montenegro, Croatia and Bosnia and Herzegovina on the west. The country mainly comprises plains and low hills (except in the mountainous region of Kosovo and Metohija). The Danube, the Sava and the Drina are the main rivers flowing in the country. The Danube flows through Belgrade (the capital) and the main cities in the country.
Serbia has gone through a number of political changes ever since its first formation as an independent kingdom in 1217.
The last was Serbia becoming independent from the state union of Serbia and Montenegro in 2006. Kosovo and Metohija are two
autonomous provinces in the country. The estimated population (2005) of Serbia is 9,396,411, including Kosovo and Metohija.
The population density of the country is 105 people per square kilometre, with Kosovo having the highest density of 146
people per square kilometre.
The estimated GDP (2006) of Serbia is USD 50.688 billion, with a growth rate of 5.8 per cent, compared to growth of 6.3 per cent in 2005.
Risk assessment
As Serbia just became independent in 2006, there is lack of retrospective, country-specific, secondary risk-related data available in the EM-DAT database. So EM-DAT's combined data for Serbia and Montenegro is presented here to provide an understanding of risk in the region. Some additional information from secondary sources is also presented. EM-DAT data for Serbia and Montenegro is available only from 1989, and is analysed to understand the hazard and vulnerability status of the country. The number of events that occurred during the period 1989-2006 shows that occurrence of technology- and flood-related hazards is the highest (38 per cent and 34 per cent respectively) among all hazards. Other hazards reported during this period and their percentage share are shown in figure. The number of disasters due to natural hazards has increased over the time, while disasters due to technological hazards show a decreasing trend. But compared to many other SEE countries, Serbia and Montenegro have reported more technological disasters, with an annual incidence rate of 0.56, meaning an average of one event every two years. The number of victims is highest due to flood (125,412), which has affected about two per cent of the country's total population, and the number of deaths is highest due to technological hazards (159). Severe earthquakes occurred during 1979, 1980 and 1998 n the country. The 1998 event has caused an economic loss of more than USD 400 million (Pusch 2004). There is no ;conomic loss data recorded for Serbia and Montenegro luring this period in EM-DAT. The National Geophysical Data Center reports an economic .oss of USD 2,705 million due to earthquake during the last 33 years. This is equivalent to an annual average of USD 82 million, or 1.66 per cent of country's GDE UNDP statistics shows there are 321,934 people exposed to flood. The incidence rate of flood and technological hazards is 0.5. The annual average number of deaths for all hazards is 10, while the annual average number of victims is 7,028. In addition to the combined data on Serbia and Montenegro presented above, there are some country-specific observations available. According to a national report on disaster reduction progress (Anonymous 2004), the biggest hazards that have affected the population and property of Serbia are flood, fire, earthquake and technological hazard. The valleys of larger watercourses, in which the largest settlements and the best farmland, infrastructure, and industry are located, are highly prone to floods. Vojvodina has the highest risk of floods. The floods are mostly along the river courses of Sava, Drina, Velika Morava, Juzna Morava and Zapadna Morava. Human activity has accelerated soil erosion, increasing the landslide risk in both republics.
Distribution of Hazards
As per the national report, seismic activity in Serbia is strong and frequent (magnitudes from 7 to 9); over 50 per cent of Serbia is vulnerable to earthquakes of magnitude 7, and around 20 per cent of the territory is vulnerable to magnitude 8 earthquakes. The most risk-prone area of Serbia is around Kopaonik, in south-eastern Serbia. There is high risk for larger cities due to high population density.
There is not much threat due to wildfire reported in the country, but vulnerability to technological hazard is very high. Accidents occurring during transportation of toxic and hazardous materials have been reported in the country. The political situation and conflicts of the recent past in the country have had lingering impacts on people and the environment, resulting in the release of toxic materials into the environment. These releases have affected water and sediment quality, especially in the Danube, Velika Morava and Lepenica rivers.
Observations
Following the series of political changes the country has undergone, it is now in the process of building a constructive framework for national security and disaster risk management. This is occurring with the support of the Stability Pact SEE disaster preparedness and prevention initiative. Currently the laws in the country are outdated, not in agreement with international conventions and European Union standards, and the constitution needs reconstruction. There is no disaster management plan in place and no efficient early warning system. At present, international cooperation is mainly focused on protection and rescue of citizens and assets. As a next step, the country should strive to integrate disaster management into development activity, so that mitigation and prevention will achieve due priority in the near future. International cooperation in this regard is veryimportant. During the previous regime of the state union between Serbia and Montenegro, the Ministry of Public Administration and local self-government, in cooperation with the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies and the national Red Cross organization, initiated risk assessments in 30 municipalities in Serbia. The assessments need to be evaluated and, if required, re-initiated. Awareness and interest need to be generated among nongovernmental organizations and other private organizations, such as universities, to get them involved in disaster management activities. There is lack of awareness and training among the public, and insufficient funds for awareness activities. Land-use legislation and flood and landslide vulnerability mapping need urgent attention, as the country is highly prone to flood and landslide. Technological hazards due to chemical industries and to past events need environmental epidemiological research in the country for the long-term health of the citizens.