Macedonia
Country profile
The Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia4 is located on the Balkan Peninsula, bordered by Serbia to the north, Albania to the west, Greece to the south, and Bulgaria to the east. Macedonia has a total surface area of 25,710 square kilometres. It is a landlocked country that is geographcally defined by a central valley formed by the Vardar River, and that is framed along its borders by mountain ranges. The terrain is mostly rugged, located between the Sara and Osogovo mountains, hich frame the valley of the Vardar River. Three large lakes - Lake Ohrid, Lake Prespa and Lake Dojran - lie on the southern borders of the Republic,
spreading into the territory of Albania and Greece.
Macedonia has a population of 2,034,060 as per 2005 statistics (World Bank 2005),
with a population density of 79 people per square kilometre.
Macedonia is considered to be a country with intermediately-developed industry,
with continuing growth in industrial production.
The process of transition in the economy was triggered in 1995.
The government has signed arrangements with the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank.
It has an open economy that is integrating into international trade, with a total trade-to-GDP ratio of 79.5 per cent.
The most important sectors are agriculture and industry, contributing 13 and 58 per cent respectively to the country's GDP.
Risk assessment
Macedonia is vulnerable to flood both in terms of flood severity, or impact, and flood intensity, or strength. Flood contributed to 44 per cent of the hazards during the period 1989-2006. The number of technological hazards (transport accident events) and extreme temperature hazards stands next to flood. During this period no earthquake event was reported in the EM-DAT database; however, this does not mean that Macedonia is not vulnerable to earthquake. The EM-DAT database has recorded 16 events (both natural and technological) during 1989-2006. The data on incidence of natural hazards shows a steadily increasing trend over the last 17 years. There were two disasters due to technological hazards recorded, an insufficient number from which to extrapolate a trend for the period. The number of events, affected population and economic losses are high due to flood during this period, indicating that the country is vulnerable to flood in terms of severity and intensity. The number of deaths is high due to technological hazards. The incidence of hazards in the country shows an increasing trend, while death is following a decreasing trend. The period 2004-2006 shows the highest number of victims. Economic loss is highest during 1994-1998, which is not in line with the number of deaths and victims. This data characteristic needs to be validated and further data is required to understand it.
Distribution of Hazards
Economic loss data is very scanty in the EM-DAT database. Macedonia is incurring an annual average economic loss of USD 25 million (0.55 per cent of GDP). Based on data from the National Geophysical Data Center, the country has experienced an economic loss of about USD 5 million during the last 33 years due to earthquake. The loss due to flood is very high, at USD 354 million. UNDP statistics show that 17,784 people were exposed to flood. The annual average number of deaths due to all hazards in the country was 13 people.
The historic data prior to what is available in EM-DAT shows that Macedonia had two major floods during 1962 and 1979, with an estimated aggregate loss of about 7'.2-7'.4 per cent of GDP (Mulutinovic and Garevshi 2005). This same data shows that Skopje is exposed to flood wave from three rivers: (1) Upper Vardar, (2) Treska, and (3) Lepenec, due to intense rainfall and due to snow melting. Flood control measures through construction of dams have been proposed and constructed to control this situation.
Even though there is no earthquake event recorded in EM-DAT, there are historic earthquake events recorded in other published documents. The territory of Macedonia, situated in the Mediterranean seismic belt, is named as an area of high seismicity. In the seismic history of Macedonia, the Vardar zone appears as a region where earthquakes occur quite frequently, and the Skopje region is considered to be the most mobile part of the Vardar zone. Historically, earthquakes of magnitudes 6.0-7.8, from ten seismic zones, have been experienced throughout the country. The strongest earthquakes occurred in the Pehcevo-Kresna (M=7.8, 1904) and the Valandovo-Dojran (M=6.7, 1931) seismic zones. The most recent and destructive earthquake was the July 26 earthquake of magnitude 6.1 in Skopje. The event killed 1,070 people and wounded 3,330, causing extensive damage to the city (Arsovski et al. 1968). The direct economic losses were estimated at USD 1 billion (15 per cent of Yugoslavia's GNP for 1963) (Pusch 2004; Mulutinovic 1998). During the last 100 years, a few destructive or even catastrophic earthquakes have affected the country. The studies on occurred seismic events indicate that, in this century, the entire territory of Macedonia has been exposed to intensities larger than VI, 97.8 per cent to intensities equal or larger than VII, 52.2 per cent to intensities equal or larger than VIII, 14.0 per cent to intensities equal or larger than IX, and 3.9 per cent to intensities equal or larger than X (Mulutinovic 1998). The earthquake of 1994, with a magnitude 5.2, hit the municipalities of Bitola, Demir Hisar, Resen and Ohrid.
It affected about 230,000 people, and caused anestimated loss of 3.4 per cent of 1993 GDE.
Observations
Macedonia is vulnerable to flood and earthquake. Macedonia has one of the best-developed systems in the SEE region for seismic monitoring and emergency management, which served the former Yugoslavia (Pusch 2004). There are fewer measures adopted towards earthquake risk mitigation in the country, even though the country has history of destructive and catastrophic earthquakes. Macedonia has existing building codes, but since 1990, these regulations have often not been followed. Earthquake insurance existed in Macedonia till 1990. Due most probably to low economic and population growth, no building boom has occurred since the 1990s. But considering the present industrial growth in the country, urgent legislative intervention is needed to enact earthquake risk mitigation measures. Legislation exists in different development sectors for planning, but it is not apparent that risk preparedness and mitigation are incorporated into development plans. However, the "Law for Protection and Improvement of Living Environment" and the "Law for Spatial and Urban Planning" are providing a general umbrella under which Macedonia's disaster risk reduction efforts can be integrated. The legislation is focused towards rescue and security aspects. There is an existing framework for an emergency management system, with regional and local headquarters and regional and local task forces. There also are efforts towards legislative harmonization with European Union legislation. The country's initiatives to incorporate risk management into sectoral development plans that address both urban and rural areas are weak. The national report that was prepared for the 2005 World Conference on Disaster Reduction in Kobe, Japan, recommends scientific and research interaction and regional initiatives in implementing technologies for environmental management. The report also recommends improvement of existing monitoring technology, and development and installation of a countrywide GIS-based disaster risk information and environment management system. But even though there is a common consensus in the country supporting development of such a countrywide GIS-based system, it is not moving forward due to lack of funds.