Bosnia and Herzegovina
Country profile
Bosnia and Herzegovina is located on the western part of the Balkan Peninsula, with a total area of 51,280 square kilometres.
It has a common border with Croatia in the north, west and south; Serbia in the east; and Montenegro to the south.
Bosnia and Herzegovina has a coast line of 26 kilometres along the Adriatic Sea. Bosnia occupies the northern areas of the country,
roughly four-fifths of the nation, which is mountainous and covered with thick forests.
Herzegovina occupies the southern part of the country, which is largely rugged and flat farmland.
The Sava River is the largest river in the country, and makes a natural border between Bosnia and Herzegovina.
About 87 per cent of the land is above 200 metres in altitude, while 25 per cent is above 1,000 metres.
The territory of Bosnia and Herzegovina is characterized by a complex geological structure and tectonic system.
Topographic, geologic, climatic and other conditions create a diverse hydrologic picture.
These unique physiographic and hydrologic conditions, including the presence of seven rivers (the Una, Sava, Vrbas, Bosna, Drina, Spreca and Neretva)
draining the nation, significantly determine development as well as natural hazards in the country.
Bosnia and Herzegovina has a population of 3,907,074 (2005) with a population density of 76 people per square kilometre.
The country has recorded a negative population growth rate; its annual average is -0.06.
Agricultural land constitutes 42 per cent of the geographical area and contributes 10 per cent of the country's GDE
The service sector contributes 65 per cent of GDP (World Bank 2005).
Risk assessment
Hazard data for the country from the EM-DAT database is only available from 1989 onwards, as the country was previously part of former Jugoslavia. This data is analysed here to understand the risks in the country. Bosnia and Herzegovina has historic records for both natural and technological hazards. Available data from EM-DAT for the period 1989-2006 shows that flood- and drought-related hazards contribute the major share of hazards experienced (figure 7). The country is affected by natural hazards related to earthquake, hail storm, windstorm with lightning, snowstorm, flood, landslide and soil settling, drought, early and late frost, and forest fire. EM-DAT shows that landslide constitutes 8 per cent of the hazards in the country. The numbers of natural hazards over the period are showing an increasing trend (figure 8). There are only two technological hazards recorded during this period and that number is insufficient for analysing the trend.
Natural Hazards
Hazard incidence shows that flooding has the highest number of events and victims in the country. Technological hazards (transport accidents) have contributed to the most deaths (56 people in two events). Flood has affected more of the population than any other hazard in the country. Only droughts have been reported as causing economic loss. The hazard incidence and its impact shows the country is more vulnerable to flood and drought-related hazards than any other hazards.
Analysing hazards through the time-series data shows that both hazard incidents and number of deaths are showing an increasing trend in the country. The number of victims recorded increased by more than double in 2004-2006, compared to 1999-2003, which indicates an increase in vulnerability. It should be noted that the last period is a three-year group, compared against the previous period of five years, and yet it is still showing that the number of victims more than doubles.
Economic losses have been reported only during 1999-2003 and 2004-2006. The hazard analysis shows that the losses reported are for two drought events of 2000 and 2003 which caused a total loss of USD 408 million. The annual average economic loss is about 1 per cent of country's GDP (Note: in addition, the National Geophysical Data Center reports that the country has experienced an economic loss of more than USD 5 million due to earthquake during the last 33 years.) Exposed population data is only available for drought and is 71,397, two per cent of total population of the country.
No large earthquake event has been recorded in the near past in the country by EM-DAT, but this doesn't mean that the nation is free from earthquakes. The territory of Bosnia and Herzegovina represents one of the earthquake-prone areas of the Balkan Peninsula, which is part of the Mediterranean-Transasian seismic belt. (The earthquake zones in the territory of former Yugoslavia are Dinarides, the Sar-Pind mountain area, Sava, Rodhop and the Carpathian-Balkans zone.) Many strong destructive earthquakes have occurred in the areas of Dinara Mountain, the lower Neretva River, Boka Kotorska, Dubrovnik, Podrinje, Sumadija, Metohija and Skopje.
The earthquake data shows that earthquakes of intensity IX on the MCS scale3 occurred at Sinj, Makarska, Hvar Island, Peljesac Peninsula, Mljet Island to Boka Kotorska, Ulcinj, Skadar, Podgorica, Gacko and Mostar, as well as in the area of Banja Luka, near the west boarder with Croatia. Other parts of the territory of Bosnia and Herzegovina are characterized mainly by the maximum intensity of earthquakes up to VII degrees on the MCS scale.
3 The Mercalli-Cancani-Sieberg (MCS) scale is sometimes used to measure the intensity of earthquakes (their effect on the environment) on a scale of 1-12.
There is a possibility of destructive earthquakes in the next one hundred years, especially in the areas of Banja Luka, Livno and south-east Herzegovina. The Banja Luka region has reported earthquakes in the years 1884, 1935, 1969 and 1981. In a territory of 9,000 square kilometres, in 15 municipalities (Banja, Luka, Celinac, Laktagi, Prnjavor, Gradiska, Kotor Varos, Knezevo, Srbac, Kljuc", Jajce, Prijedor, Sanski Most, Novi Grad and Dubica), earthquake intensity was VII, VIII and IX degrees on the MCS scale. The 1981 earthquake injured 1,117 people, killed 15 people and caused considerable damage to housing, health, culture, social protection, public and social services, and infrastructure affecting the economy. Forty-three point two per cent of the urban housing stock and 56.8 per cent in other residential areas were destroyed; 266 schools, 146 cultural institutions, 133 health institutions, 29 social institutions, 152 public and administrative institutions and a considerable number of structures of public and economic importance suffered great damage (Anonymous 2001).
The country has two watersheds: the Sava basin, covering 74 per cent of the country, and the Adriatic basin, covering 26 per cent. Fifty-eight per cent of water outflow goes towards the Sava River, and 42 per cent goes towards the Adriatic Sea. During the annual flood period, from 1976 to!980, about 16,260 square kilometres have been affected every year, inflicting tremendously harmful impacts on the population. In 1976, 43 out of 109 municipalities of the country were affected by flood. During 1976-1980, three catastrophic floods occurred, or one flood event almost every second year (Anonymous 2001). EM-DAT shows that, during 2001-2005, four major flood events were recorded. The flood event of April 2004 affected a large population (275,000) in the country.
The Sava River and its tributaries frequently flood. Smaller streams have a torrent character, and their water level frequently increases due to long and heavy rains and snow thaws. The upper, middle and lower water courses of the Sava tributaries are all prone to flood. Floods also occur in the great karst valleys, as a result of unequal water inflow and outflow of water in the karst topography.
About 2,500 square kilometres (about 60 per cent of all plains and low-lands) are prone to floods in the country. There were enough flood protection structures to protect 50 per cent of the flood prone areas, but many of these were destroyed during the war. As per the urban plan of the country, 450 kilometres of embankment, about 210 kilometres of drainage, about 450 kilometres of partial regulation of water flows, and 23 pumping stations with the capacity of 120 cubic metres per second were all constructed. However, during the war, most of the systems created for the purpose of flood protection were damaged.
The occurrence of landslides in the mountainous parts of Bosnia and Herzegovina is very frequent due to subsurface water flow. Due to the landslides in the Zenica area in 2000, for example, seven people were killed; many families were left homeless, and the Sarajevo-Pale road was destroyed. The number of landslides increased considerably during the war and in its aftermath, due to both uncontrolled exploitation of forests and minerals, which changed water and land regimes, and to increased illegal and unplanned construction.
Soil settling due to underground exploitation of minerals leads to hazardous situations. The area most affected by soil settling, caused by salt mining, is Tuzla. Harmful consequences of soil settling have affected more than one-quarter of the Tuzla urban area. Large landslides also occur in mines such as the coal mine Breza, the open-cut mine "Koritnik", the mine and steel factory "Vares" and the open-cut mine "Smreka". In other opencut mines, landslides of smaller size occur.
Drought risk is high in the north-east and south-west parts of the country compared to the central mountainous parts. The May 2003 drought affected large parts of the country, and triggered wildfires that caused damages of USD 250 million and affected 62,575 people.
Observations
The modern network of seismological stations which was built in Banja Luka was destroyed during the war, and remaining stations have now become obsolete due to a lack of proper maintenance. There is a need to install an earthquake monitoring network, which should be a part of a regional network for the SEE region. Damage to flood protection structures has increased the flood vulnerability of the country. There is a need for close monitoring, and for developing an information system on flood-related data and projected flood risk. This will help to develop proper flood mitigation measures in the country. Early warning systems need to be in place as part of the hazarq mitigation measures. Mapping of landslide-prone areas, and land-use regulations, legislation and implementation can all reduce the landslide vulnerability of the country. The country does not have a disaster management plan. Joint firefighting groups with neighboring countries will help reduce the risk from fire-related hazards in the country. Bosnia and Herzegovina carrieij out joint firefighting exercises in 2004 with Croatia, Serbia and Montenegro. In this context, it is worth mentioning the efforts of DPPI towards initiating and supporting the joint firefighting system in the region. There is an urgent need for improved regional cooperation on hazard mitigation, on harmonization of planning documentation for crisis situations, and on information dissemination among neighboring countries during disaster events.